{"id":970986,"date":"2025-11-19T20:20:39","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T20:20:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/?p=970986"},"modified":"2025-11-19T20:20:39","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T20:20:39","slug":"uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/","title":{"rendered":"UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Ahead of Black Friday and Autumn Budget"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_73 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#_What_the_data_shows\" title=\"\u00a0What the data shows\">\u00a0What the data shows<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#_Why_the_slowdown_Key_drivers\" title=\"\u00a0Why the slowdown? Key drivers\">\u00a0Why the slowdown? Key drivers<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#_Implications_what_to_watch\" title=\"\u00a0Implications &amp; what to watch\">\u00a0Implications &amp; what to watch<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#_Summary\" title=\"\u00a0Summary\">\u00a0Summary<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#Case_Studies_Key_Comments\" title=\"Case Studies &amp; Key Comments\">Case Studies &amp; Key Comments<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#Analysis_What_These_Case_Studies_Mean\" title=\"Analysis: What These Case Studies Mean\">Analysis: What These Case Studies Mean<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_What_the_data_shows\"><\/span>\u00a0What the data shows<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>According to British Retail Consortium (BRC) and partners, total UK retail sales growth in October rose by <strong>1.6% year-on-year<\/strong>. (<a title=\"UK annual retail sales growth slows to 1.6% in October ...\" href=\"https:\/\/global.morningstar.com\/en-gb\/news\/alliance-news\/1762819676635370200\/uk-annual-retail-sales-growth-slows-to-16-in-october-ahead-of-budget?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Morningstar<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>On a like-for-like basis (which strips out the effect of store openings\/closures), growth slipped to about <strong>1.5%<\/strong> (from about 2.0% in September). (<a title=\"UK Retail Sales Growth Slows to 5-Month Low\" href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-kingdom\/brc-retail-sales-monitor-yoy\/news\/500745?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Trading Economics<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>In the food &amp; grocery segment: growth was stronger than non-food, with food retail up about <strong>3.5% year-on-year<\/strong> for October. (<a title=\"Data: Food sales continue to increase in October\" href=\"https:\/\/www.grocerygazette.co.uk\/2025\/11\/11\/data-food-sales-continue-to-increase-in-october\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Grocery Gazette<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>By contrast, non-food categories (clothing, electronics, toys, etc.) were essentially flat or very weak in growth. (<a title=\"UK retail sales growth slows as shoppers await Black ...\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/nov\/11\/uk-retail-sales-growth-black-friday-budget-brc-barclays?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">The Guardian<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>Consumer-spending data via credit\/debit cards: a fall of ~0.8% in October year-on-year, per Barclays data. (<a title=\"UK consumer spending slows ahead of Black Friday and budget\" href=\"https:\/\/www.globalbankingandfinance.com\/britain-economy-consumers-zero\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Global Banking | Finance<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>Consumer confidence weakened: the S&amp;P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index fell to <strong>45.2<\/strong> in November (down from 47.4 in October). (<a title=\"Consumer confidence drops to four-month low ahead of Autumn Budget\" href=\"https:\/\/www.retailsector.co.uk\/680355-consumer-confidence-drops-to-four-month-low-ahead-of-autumn-budget\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Retail Sector<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Why_the_slowdown_Key_drivers\"><\/span>\u00a0Why the slowdown? Key drivers<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Several factors are contributing to the softer retail performance:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>\u201cWait-and-see\u201d behaviour ahead of Budget &amp; Black Friday<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Many consumers appear to be delaying purchases\u2014especially discretionary\/non-essential items\u2014while they await the Autumn Budget (scheduled for 26 Nov) and the big Black Friday discount event (end of November). (<a title=\"UK consumer spending slows ahead of Black Friday and ...\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/uk\/uk-consumer-spending-slows-ahead-black-friday-budget-2025-11-11\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Reuters<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>Barclays\u2019 survey found roughly one in three consumers were holding off on major purchase decisions until after the Budget. (<a title=\"UK consumer spending slows ahead of Black Friday and budget\" href=\"https:\/\/www.globalbankingandfinance.com\/britain-economy-consumers-zero\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Global Banking | Finance<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Consumer confidence under pressure<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Sentiment has fallen across the board: households are less confident about their finances, future purchasing, job security, etc. (<a title=\"Consumer confidence drops to four-month low ahead of Autumn Budget\" href=\"https:\/\/www.retailsector.co.uk\/680355-consumer-confidence-drops-to-four-month-low-ahead-of-autumn-budget\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Retail Sector<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>With rising cost-of-living pressures, inflation, and limited real income growth, households are prioritising essential spending or delaying purchases. (<a title=\"British consumers cut back on spending ahead of the budget\" href=\"https:\/\/fashionunited.uk\/news\/business\/british-consumers-cut-back-on-spending-ahead-of-the-budget\/2025111184835?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">FashionUnited<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Shift in spending mix &amp; inflation dynamics<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>The food\/grocery sector is doing better than non-food, but much of that growth is price-driven rather than volume-driven. As the BRC put it: \u201cfood sales growth \u2026 mostly driven by higher prices rather than higher volumes.\u201d (<a title=\"UK retail sales growth slows as shoppers await Black ...\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/nov\/11\/uk-retail-sales-growth-black-friday-budget-brc-barclays?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">The Guardian<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>In non-food, mild autumn weather, the expectation of upcoming discounts (Black Friday), and consumer caution are dampening demand. (<a title=\"UK retail sales growth slows as shoppers await Black ...\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/nov\/11\/uk-retail-sales-growth-black-friday-budget-brc-barclays?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">The Guardian<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Retailer pressure &amp; business cost concerns<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Retailers are cautious: weak demand means they face \u201chard choices\u201d around investment and staffing, especially with unresolved issues like business rates. (<a title=\"UK consumer spending slows ahead of Black Friday and ...\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/uk\/uk-consumer-spending-slows-ahead-black-friday-budget-2025-11-11\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Reuters<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Implications_what_to_watch\"><\/span>\u00a0Implications &amp; what to watch<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>For retailers: The weaker early autumn performance increases the importance of a strong Black Friday and Christmas period to make up for muted momentum. The risk: if consumer caution persists (or Budget measures undermine confidence further), the holiday uplift may be softer than hoped.<\/li>\n<li>For consumers: The delay in spending suggests many households are \u201csaving up\u201d or waiting for deals, which could mean heavier discounting by retailers, or shifts in how and what people buy (e.g., focusing on value).<\/li>\n<li>For the macro economy: Retail spending is a key indicator of household behaviour. The slowdown highlights that the consumer sector remains under strain\u2014meaning growth could be weaker unless confidence recovers.<\/li>\n<li>For the forthcoming Budget: The government will want to avoid measures that further dent consumer confidence or spending. Retailers will be watching closely for business rate decisions, tax changes, etc., because those feed into investment and hiring decisions. As the BRC noted: \u201cRetailers are counting on Black Friday to deliver a vital boost, but looming Budget decisions risk undermining fragile consumer confidence.\u201d (<a title=\"UK consumer spending slows ahead of Black Friday and ...\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/uk\/uk-consumer-spending-slows-ahead-black-friday-budget-2025-11-11\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Reuters<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Summary\"><\/span>\u00a0Summary<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>In short: UK retail sales growth slowed noticeably in October (to ~1.6% y\/y) \u2014 the weakest pace since May \u2014 with non-food showing the biggest weakness. Consumers are holding off on spending ahead of key events (Black Friday &amp; Autumn Budget), and their confidence is under pressure. Food\/grocery is holding up better, but that is more about price than volume. Retailers are entering a critical period where the upcoming Black Friday\/holiday season and government fiscal policy will be pivotal.<\/p>\n<p>Good question. Here are some <strong>case studies<\/strong> and <strong>key comments<\/strong> from UK retailers, economists, and analysts about the recent slowdown in retail sales ahead of Black Friday and the Autumn Budget \u2014 plus what they\u2019re worried about and how they\u2019re responding.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Case_Studies_Key_Comments\"><\/span>Case Studies &amp; Key Comments<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>British Retail Consortium (BRC) \/ KPMG<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, said October was \u201ca subdued month, with the weakest growth since May.\u201d (<a title=\"UK shoppers hold off spending, waiting for Black Friday deals\" href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/uk-shoppers-hold-off-spending-093952099.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Yahoo Finance<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>She noted that many consumers are delaying discretionary purchases \u2014 especially in <strong>toys, electronics, and clothing<\/strong> \u2014 because they\u2019re waiting for Black Friday deals or are uncertain about what the Budget will bring. (<a title=\"UK shoppers hold off spending, waiting for Black Friday deals\" href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/uk-shoppers-hold-off-spending-093952099.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Yahoo Finance<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>Dickinson also warned that <strong>uncertainty around business rates<\/strong> (a tax issue) plus weak demand is pressuring retailers on decisions around investment and hiring. (<a title=\"UK consumer spending slows ahead of Black Friday and budget By Reuters\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/news\/economic-indicators\/uk-consumer-spending-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-budget-4347983?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Investing.com<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Barclays \/ Consumer Confidence<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist at Barclays Private Bank &amp; Wealth Management, described a \u201cwait-and-see\u201d mindset among both consumers and businesses ahead of the Budget, calling it a <strong>short-term headwind<\/strong> but suggesting there <em>could<\/em> be a rebound later:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cConsumers and businesses alike appear to have adopted a \u2019wait and see\u2019 approach \u2026 While this is generating some short-term headwinds, it could position the UK economy for a rebound once the uncertainty lifts \u2026\u201d (<a title=\"UK consumer spending slows ahead of Black Friday and budget By Reuters\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/news\/economic-indicators\/uk-consumer-spending-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-budget-4347983?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Investing.com<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/li>\n<li>Barclays\u2019 consumer survey (2,000 people) found that <strong>about one in three consumers<\/strong> are postponing \u201cmajor purchase decisions\u201d until after the Budget. (<a title=\"UK consumer spending slows ahead of Black Friday and budget By Reuters\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/news\/economic-indicators\/uk-consumer-spending-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-budget-4347983?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Investing.com<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>On confidence metrics: Barclays reported that <em>all seven<\/em> of its \u201cstandard measures\u201d of consumer\/economic confidence declined \u2014 marking the first drop since August 2022. (<a title=\"UK shoppers hold off spending, waiting for Black Friday deals\" href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/uk-shoppers-hold-off-spending-093952099.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Yahoo Finance<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>NielsenIQ \/ Supermarket Sector<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>According to <em>NIQ<\/em> (via its press release), till sales growth at UK supermarkets slowed to <strong>+3.2%<\/strong> in the four weeks to 1 Nov, down from +4.1% previously. (<a title=\"Supermarket sales slow as UK shoppers hold back ahead of Black Friday and Christmas deals\u00a0 - NIQ\" href=\"https:\/\/nielseniq.com\/global\/en\/news-center\/2025\/supermarket-sales-slow-as-uk-shoppers-hold-back-ahead-of-black-friday-and-christmas-deals\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">NIQ<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>In-store visits are up (+3.9%), but consumers are more focused on discounts: about <strong>24% of spending was on promoted\/discounted products<\/strong>. (<a title=\"Data: Shoppers slow spending ahead of Black Friday and Christmas - Grocery Gazette - Latest Grocery Industry News\" href=\"https:\/\/www.grocerygazette.co.uk\/2025\/11\/12\/data-shoppers-slow-spending-ahead-of-black-friday-and-christmas\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Grocery Gazette<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer &amp; Business Insight at NIQ, pointed to \u201cfragile consumer confidence\u201d and inflation as key headwinds. (<a title=\"Supermarket sales slow as UK shoppers hold back ahead of Black Friday and Christmas deals\u00a0 - NIQ\" href=\"https:\/\/nielseniq.com\/global\/en\/news-center\/2025\/supermarket-sales-slow-as-uk-shoppers-hold-back-ahead-of-black-friday-and-christmas-deals\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">NIQ<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>That said, Watkins also saw a silver lining:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cWhilst shoppers are economising, they are not compromising \u2026 we expect sales to accelerate in early December \u2026 depending on the success of current advertising campaigns \u2026 and the impact of Black Friday.\u201d (<a title=\"Supermarket sales slow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.foodmanufacture.co.uk\/Article\/2025\/11\/13\/supermarket-sales-slow\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">FoodManufacture.co.uk<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Marks &amp; Spencer (M&amp;S)<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>According to a <em>Proactive Investors<\/em> report, M&amp;S sees the cautious consumer behaviour clearly: the slowdown in October \u201creflects more budget-conscious\u201d shoppers. (<a title=\"UK retail sales slow as shoppers more budget-conscious | LSE:MKS\" href=\"https:\/\/www.proactiveinvestors.com\/companies\/news\/1082228\/uk-retail-sales-slow-as-shoppers-more-budget-conscious-1082228.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Proactiveinvestors NA<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>M&amp;S is feeling the pinch in <strong>non-food categories<\/strong>, where consumers are holding off on discretionary spending. (<a title=\"UK retail sales slow as shoppers more budget-conscious | LSE:MKS\" href=\"https:\/\/www.proactiveinvestors.com\/companies\/news\/1082228\/uk-retail-sales-slow-as-shoppers-more-budget-conscious-1082228.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Proactiveinvestors NA<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sainsbury\u2019s<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Simon Roberts, CEO of Sainsbury\u2019s (which owns Argos and Habitat), has publicly urged the Chancellor <strong>not to raise taxes again<\/strong>, because customers are already delaying spending due to tight household budgets. (<a title=\"Sainsbury's says shoppers are delaying spending in run-up to budget\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/nov\/06\/sainsburys-rachel-reeves-tax-rises-retailers-inflation?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">The Guardian<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>He said Argos is launching its Black Friday deals earlier than last year to try to stimulate demand \u2014 because they\u2019re <em>seeing delayed spend<\/em>. (<a title=\"Sainsbury's says shoppers are delaying spending in run-up to budget\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/nov\/06\/sainsburys-rachel-reeves-tax-rises-retailers-inflation?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">The Guardian<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>Roberts also flagged significant cost pressures: for example, a large increase in employer national insurance, plus new regulatory costs on packaging. (<a title=\"Sainsbury's says shoppers are delaying spending in run-up to budget\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/nov\/06\/sainsburys-rachel-reeves-tax-rises-retailers-inflation?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">The Guardian<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>CBI (Confederation of British Industry)<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>A survey by the CBI (which covers many retailers) showed their \u201csales gauge\u201d is still negative: they reported <strong>-27<\/strong> in October, meaning many retailers are seeing sales volume decline. (<a title=\"UK retailers struggle again as budget fears weigh on consumers, CBI says\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/retail-consumer\/uk-retailers-struggle-again-budget-fears-weigh-consumers-cbi-says-2025-10-27\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Reuters<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>Their forward-looking \u201cexpected sales\u201d gauge for November dropped further (to -39), reflecting deep concern among retailers. (<a title=\"UK retailers struggle again as budget fears weigh on consumers, CBI says\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/retail-consumer\/uk-retailers-struggle-again-budget-fears-weigh-consumers-cbi-says-2025-10-27\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Reuters<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>Martin Sartorius, the CBI principal economist, warned that \u201cpersistent uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget\u201d is worsening strain on retailers. He called on the government to <strong>rule out further business tax hikes<\/strong> to help restore confidence. (<a title=\"UK retailers struggle again as budget fears weigh on consumers, CBI says\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/retail-consumer\/uk-retailers-struggle-again-budget-fears-weigh-consumers-cbi-says-2025-10-27\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Reuters<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Analysis_What_These_Case_Studies_Mean\"><\/span>Analysis: What These Case Studies Mean<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Retailers are counting on Black Friday<\/strong> more than ever: Because spending is weak now, many are hoping that Black Friday (and the holiday season) will provide a big enough boost to make up for this early-autumn lull. (BRC \/ NIQ \/ Sainsbury\u2019s)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Budget uncertainty is a real risk<\/strong>: Multiple players (BRC, Barclays, CBI, Sainsbury\u2019s) highlight that fears around the upcoming Autumn Budget are damping consumer confidence and spending. Any tax rises or negative measures could further weaken demand.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Promotions &amp; discounts are intensifying<\/strong>: Supermarkets are seeing a large share of sales happening on promotion (NIQ). Some retailers are launching deals earlier than usual to pull forward spend.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Retail investment and employment decisions are under strain<\/strong>: Because demand is weak and costs are rising, retailers face hard choices around expansion, hiring, or other investments.<\/li>\n<li><strong>There could be a rebound\u2014but it&#8217;s not guaranteed<\/strong>: Some strategists (like from Barclays) argue that once the Budget is out of the way and if sentiment improves, there could be a strong festive surge. But whether that happens depends a lot on policy decisions and how deep Black Friday discounts go.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<ul>\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; \u00a0What the data shows According to British Retail Consortium (BRC) and partners, total UK retail sales growth in October rose by 1.6% year-on-year. (Morningstar)&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-970986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gb-news","category-uk-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Ahead of Black Friday and Autumn Budget - UK News &amp; Updates<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Ahead of Black Friday and Autumn Budget - UK News &amp; Updates\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&nbsp; \u00a0What the data shows According to British Retail Consortium (BRC) and partners, total UK retail sales growth in October rose by 1.6% year-on-year. (Morningstar)...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"UK News &amp; Updates\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-11-19T20:20:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#\/schema\/person\/5529805dee92503827c0c27ed13d55a3\"},\"headline\":\"UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Ahead of Black Friday and Autumn Budget\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-19T20:20:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/\"},\"wordCount\":1391,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"GB News\",\"UK News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/\",\"name\":\"UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Ahead of Black Friday and Autumn Budget - UK News &amp; Updates\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-19T20:20:39+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Ahead of Black Friday and Autumn Budget\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/\",\"name\":\"UK News &amp; Updates\",\"description\":\"UK Post Code\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#organization\",\"name\":\"UK News &amp; Updates\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/cropped-uk-logo-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/cropped-uk-logo-1.png\",\"width\":307,\"height\":85,\"caption\":\"UK News &amp; Updates\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#\/schema\/person\/5529805dee92503827c0c27ed13d55a3\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6aac6e3af4be1d6689e924bbaccd84fc0cc6c5f6680490dc6f0a1f09b87d57f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6aac6e3af4be1d6689e924bbaccd84fc0cc6c5f6680490dc6f0a1f09b87d57f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/author\/admin\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Ahead of Black Friday and Autumn Budget - UK News &amp; Updates","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Ahead of Black Friday and Autumn Budget - UK News &amp; Updates","og_description":"&nbsp; \u00a0What the data shows According to British Retail Consortium (BRC) and partners, total UK retail sales growth in October rose by 1.6% year-on-year. (Morningstar)...","og_url":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/","og_site_name":"UK News &amp; Updates","article_published_time":"2025-11-19T20:20:39+00:00","author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#\/schema\/person\/5529805dee92503827c0c27ed13d55a3"},"headline":"UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Ahead of Black Friday and Autumn Budget","datePublished":"2025-11-19T20:20:39+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/"},"wordCount":1391,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#organization"},"articleSection":["GB News","UK News"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/","url":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/","name":"UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Ahead of Black Friday and Autumn Budget - UK News &amp; Updates","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-11-19T20:20:39+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/uk-retail-sales-growth-slows-ahead-of-black-friday-and-autumn-budget\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Ahead of Black Friday and Autumn Budget"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/","name":"UK News &amp; Updates","description":"UK Post Code","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#organization","name":"UK News &amp; Updates","url":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/cropped-uk-logo-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/cropped-uk-logo-1.png","width":307,"height":85,"caption":"UK News &amp; Updates"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#\/schema\/person\/5529805dee92503827c0c27ed13d55a3","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6aac6e3af4be1d6689e924bbaccd84fc0cc6c5f6680490dc6f0a1f09b87d57f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6aac6e3af4be1d6689e924bbaccd84fc0cc6c5f6680490dc6f0a1f09b87d57f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content"],"url":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/author\/admin\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/970986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=970986"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/970986\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":970987,"href":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/970986\/revisions\/970987"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=970986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=970986"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=970986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}