{"id":939841,"date":"2025-10-27T14:29:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T14:29:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/?p=939841"},"modified":"2025-10-27T14:29:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T14:29:07","slug":"new-report-reveals-brexits-economic-impact-on-the-uk-is-far-worse-than-predicted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/new-report-reveals-brexits-economic-impact-on-the-uk-is-far-worse-than-predicted\/","title":{"rendered":"New Report Reveals Brexit\u2019s Economic Impact on the UK Is Far Worse Than Predicted"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/britain\/2023\/01\/03\/the-impact-of-brexit-in-charts?utm_source=chatgpt.com\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.openai.com\/static-rsc-1\/huykRmjmwT3_GpEA-w8E5aXDEtKmQFNOB0aitcmuiknJjKR79gYXEExPA9Uczwf_ehTk9tuahi619Xzwy1mvcGSuVKgOUp7Pdzx3pfn50M2yb4ltcLxNUxGb1FKJyHoBqDYIgVOiA2eVt6nXlSOLuA\" alt=\"The impact of Brexit, in charts\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>A recent report from the Greater London Authority (GLA) reveals that Brexit has significantly impacted the UK&#8217;s economy, making it nearly \u00a3140 billion smaller than it would have been had the country remained in the European Union. This analysis highlights the profound economic consequences of the UK&#8217;s departure from the EU.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_73 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/new-report-reveals-brexits-economic-impact-on-the-uk-is-far-worse-than-predicted\/#_Economic_Impact_Overview\" title=\"\u00a0Economic Impact Overview\">\u00a0Economic Impact Overview<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/new-report-reveals-brexits-economic-impact-on-the-uk-is-far-worse-than-predicted\/#_Impact_on_London\" title=\"\u00a0Impact on London\">\u00a0Impact on London<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/new-report-reveals-brexits-economic-impact-on-the-uk-is-far-worse-than-predicted\/#_Sectoral_and_Structural_Impacts\" title=\"\u00a0Sectoral and Structural Impacts\">\u00a0Sectoral and Structural Impacts<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/new-report-reveals-brexits-economic-impact-on-the-uk-is-far-worse-than-predicted\/#_Long-Term_Projections\" title=\"\u00a0Long-Term Projections\">\u00a0Long-Term Projections<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/new-report-reveals-brexits-economic-impact-on-the-uk-is-far-worse-than-predicted\/#_Policy_Recommendations\" title=\"\u00a0Policy Recommendations\">\u00a0Policy Recommendations<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/new-report-reveals-brexits-economic-impact-on-the-uk-is-far-worse-than-predicted\/#_Economic_Impact_and_Forecasts\" title=\"\u00a0Economic Impact and Forecasts\">\u00a0Economic Impact and Forecasts<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/new-report-reveals-brexits-economic-impact-on-the-uk-is-far-worse-than-predicted\/#Business_Challenges_and_Case_Studies_Thematic\" title=\"Business Challenges and Case Studies (Thematic)\">Business Challenges and Case Studies (Thematic)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/new-report-reveals-brexits-economic-impact-on-the-uk-is-far-worse-than-predicted\/#_Comments_and_Political_Reaction\" title=\"\u00a0Comments and Political Reaction\">\u00a0Comments and Political Reaction<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Economic_Impact_Overview\"><\/span>\u00a0Economic Impact Overview<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Overall Economic Size<\/strong>: The UK economy is approximately \u00a3140 billion smaller due to Brexit.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Job Losses<\/strong>: Nearly 2 million jobs have been lost across the UK, with almost 300,000 fewer jobs in London alone.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Household Income<\/strong>: The average Briton was nearly \u00a32,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner experienced a loss of nearly \u00a33,400.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Impact_on_London\"><\/span>\u00a0Impact on London<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Gross Value Added (GVA)<\/strong>: In 2019, London&#8217;s GVA was 6.2% (\u00a332 billion) lower than it would have been had the UK voted to remain in the EU.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Household Income Loss<\/strong>: This equates to approximately \u00a39,500 of foregone income for every household in London.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Projected Future Losses<\/strong>: If no action is taken, over \u00a360 billion could be wiped off the value of London&#8217;s economy by 2035.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Sectoral_and_Structural_Impacts\"><\/span>\u00a0Sectoral and Structural Impacts<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Trade and Investment<\/strong>: Brexit has stalled trade and investment activity, leading to a 5% reduction in the UK economy, according to Goldman Sachs economists. (<a title=\"Goldman Sachs economists: Brexit shrank U.K. economy ...\" href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/europe\/2024\/02\/13\/brexit-vote-has-left-uk-economy-5-worse-off-goldman-sachs-economists-say\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Fortune<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Labor Market<\/strong>: The UK has experienced a decline in labor force growth, partly due to reduced migration and changes in labor market dynamics.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Productivity and Growth<\/strong>: Brexit has been associated with lower productivity growth and slower economic recovery compared to other advanced economies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Long-Term_Projections\"><\/span>\u00a0Long-Term Projections<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>National Economy<\/strong>: Without corrective measures, the UK&#8217;s economy could be over \u00a3300 billion smaller by 2035.<\/li>\n<li><strong>London&#8217;s Economy<\/strong>: London could face a loss exceeding \u00a360 billion by 2035, impacting public services and overall economic vitality.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Policy_Recommendations\"><\/span>\u00a0Policy Recommendations<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>The Mayor of London has emphasized the urgent need to rebuild a closer relationship with the EU to mitigate these economic challenges. Strengthening trade ties, enhancing labor mobility, and fostering investment are crucial steps toward economic recovery and growth.<\/p>\n<div id=\"model-response-message-contentr_99c83e7f11ed191b\" class=\"markdown markdown-main-panel enable-updated-hr-color\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p><span class=\"citation-333\">A report by <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-333\">Cambridge Econometrics<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-333 citation-end-333\">, commissioned by the Mayor of London&#8217;s office, suggests the economic impact of Brexit on the UK is significantly worse than previously expected, with substantial long-term costs.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"1\">1<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The key findings and commentary include:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Economic_Impact_and_Forecasts\"><\/span>\u00a0Economic Impact and Forecasts<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b><span class=\"citation-332\">Cost to Date and Future Loss:<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-332\"> The analysis estimates that Brexit has already cost the UK economy <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-332\">\u00a3140 billion<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-332\"> and projects that the nation could be <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-332\">\u00a3311 billion worse off by 2035<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-332 citation-end-332\"> than if it had remained in the EU.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"2\">2<\/sup><\/span>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/li>\n<li><b>GDP\/GVA Impact:<\/b><span class=\"citation-331\"> The UK&#8217;s real Gross Value Added (GVA), a measure of economic output, was approximately <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-331\">6% lower in 2023<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-331\"> than it would have been without Brexit, and is projected to be <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-331\">10.1% lower by 2035<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-331 citation-end-331\"> under the current relationship.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"3\">3<\/sup><\/span>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/li>\n<li><b>Jobs and Investment:<\/b><span class=\"citation-330\"> The report projects that by 2035, the UK could have <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-330\">three million fewer jobs<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-330\"> and <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-330\">32% lower investment<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-330 citation-end-330\"> than a scenario without Brexit.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"4\">4<\/sup><\/span>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/li>\n<li><b>Trade:<\/b><span class=\"citation-329\"> It forecasts <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-329\">5% lower exports and 16% lower imports<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-329 citation-end-329\"> by 2035 compared to the counterfactual scenario.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"5\">5<\/sup><\/span>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Business_Challenges_and_Case_Studies_Thematic\"><\/span>Business Challenges and Case Studies (Thematic)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"citation-328\">The post-Brexit trading relationship (the Trade and Cooperation Agreement or TCA) has introduced significant <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-328\">non-tariff barriers<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-328 citation-end-328\"> which create administrative and financial hurdles for businesses.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"6\">6<\/sup><\/span> While specific company names are not always detailed in the public summaries, sector-specific challenges illustrate the impact:<\/p>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b><span class=\"citation-327\">Supply Chain Disruptions:<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-327\"> Many businesses, particularly those operating on a <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-327\">Just-in-Time (JIT)<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-327\"> strategy, have faced increased <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-327\">costs, red tape, bureaucracy, and delays<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-327 citation-end-327\"> due to new customs checks and border controls.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"7\">7<\/sup><\/span> Research indicates that supply chain disruption is considered the <b>most significant challenge<\/b> for many UK businesses, surpassing even the impacts of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine for some.\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/li>\n<li><b><span class=\"citation-326\">Labour Shortages:<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-326\"> The end of the free movement of people has disproportionately affected sectors reliant on lower-skilled EU workers, such as <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-326\">hospitality, construction, and transportation<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-326 citation-end-326\">.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"8\">8<\/sup><\/span> <span class=\"citation-325 citation-end-325\">The hospitality sector, for example, has seen a significant rise in vacancies and a fall in EU workers, forcing businesses to raise salaries or invest in new technology to cope.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"9\">9<\/sup><\/span>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/li>\n<li><b>SME Disadvantage:<\/b> <b>Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)<\/b> generally face greater challenges than multinational companies, as they have fewer resources to manage the rising costs and complicated administrative procedures associated with exporting to the EU.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Comments_and_Political_Reaction\"><\/span>\u00a0Comments and Political Reaction<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b><span class=\"citation-324\">Economists&#8217; Consensus:<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-324\"> The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has stated that Brexit would have a <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-324\">&#8220;negative&#8221; impact on the UK economy for the &#8220;foreseeable future,&#8221;<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-324 citation-end-324\"> noting the reduction in long-term productivity caused by trade barriers.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"10\">10<\/sup><\/span>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/li>\n<li><b>Political Framing:<\/b><span class=\"citation-323\"> The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, who commissioned the Cambridge Econometrics report, used the findings to argue that the <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-323\">&#8220;hard-line version of Brexit we&#8217;ve ended up with is dragging our economy down&#8221;<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-323 citation-end-323\"> and advocated for a closer relationship with the EU to arrest the decline.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"11\">11<\/sup><\/span>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/li>\n<li><b><span class=\"citation-322\">Official Forecasts:<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-322\"> The independent <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-322\">Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-322\"> has long forecast that the TCA would reduce the UK&#8217;s long-run productivity by around <\/span><b><span class=\"citation-322\">4%<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-322 citation-end-322\"> relative to remaining in the EU, largely due to non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"12\">12<\/sup><\/span> <span class=\"citation-321 citation-end-321\">Recent government comments, like those from Chancellor Rachel Reeves, have explicitly blamed a heavier than anticipated blow from Brexit for forcing difficult decisions in the budget.<sup class=\"superscript\" data-turn-source-index=\"13\">13<\/sup><\/span>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A recent report from the Greater London Authority (GLA) reveals that Brexit has significantly impacted the UK&#8217;s economy, making it nearly \u00a3140 billion smaller than&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-939841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gb-news","category-uk-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>New Report Reveals Brexit\u2019s Economic Impact on the UK Is Far Worse Than Predicted - UK News &amp; Updates<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ukpostcode.org\/content\/new-report-reveals-brexits-economic-impact-on-the-uk-is-far-worse-than-predicted\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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