What the polling shows
- A recent survey by Freshwater Strategy for City A.M. found that 76 % of UK voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Only 19 % say it is headed in the right direction. (City AM)
- 59 % of respondents said they expected the UK economy to deteriorate over the coming period — up from earlier polling. (City AM)
- More than half (53 %) believe their household’s living standards will get worse in the next year, while only ~20 % expect them to improve. (City AM)
- In past polling by Ipsos MORI, 75 % of Britons expected the economy to get worse over the next year — the lowest confidence level since records began (1978) for that series. (Reuters)
What’s driving the pessimism
Several factors are contributing to the bleak public mood:
- Cost of living pressure and inflation: Many households feel squeezed, with rising prices, interest rates, and wage growth not keeping pace. The City AM poll links the wrong-direction sentiment to higher borrowing costs, inflation and concern over tax rises. (City AM)
- Economic outlook: With 59 % expecting the economy to worsen, people are less confident about jobs, growth and stability. (City AM)
- Budgetary and fiscal concerns: Ahead of the Autumn Budget, there is anxiety about tax increases, spending cuts and a large fiscal gap. For example, commentary in the Financial Times points to a “gaping hole” in the public finances that may shape the Budget. (Financial Times)
- Broader mood of national direction: Beyond economics alone, there is a perception of “the country” being off-course — polls suggest not just the economy but services, governance and opportunities are under pressure. (The Economist)
Implications of this sentiment
- For the government and Chancellor: The strong public pessimism raises the political stakes for the Autumn Budget. With so many people believing things are going in the wrong direction, the Chancellor (Rachel Reeves) will face pressure to deliver visible improvement or at least credible hope of improvement, rather than simply more pain.
- Policy expectations: The mood may shape the type of measures people will accept — e.g., tax rises may be more resisted unless paired with relief or clear benefits, spending cuts may be criticised unless targeted and well-explained.
- Market/financial effects: Business and investor confidence may be affected by weak consumer sentiment. If households hold back spending due to pessimism, that may dampen growth and complicate fiscal/stimulus planning.
- Electoral ramifications: A widespread belief that the country is “off-course” potentially increases volatility in voting behaviour and raises the risk of political backlash if people feel insufficient progress is made.
What to watch for in the Budget
Given the negative mood and the upcoming Autumn Budget, here are some key things to monitor:
- Whether the Budget includes measures aimed directly at boosting household confidence (e.g., cost-of-living relief, targeted tax cuts, support for living standards) rather than just revenue/borrowing management.
- The narrative/focus: Will the government prioritise growth and optimism (to counter the mood) or emphasise austerity/fiscal discipline (which may reinforce the pessimism)?
- How the government addresses services, jobs and growth, not just macro indicators. Public mood suggests people are concerned about more than just numbers.
- How the Chancellor uses the Budget to signal a shift in direction — not only through policies, but through communication and framing of “where we’re heading” for the country.
Summary
In short: The vast majority of Britons believe the UK is heading in the wrong direction, especially ahead of the Autumn Budget. This reflects deep concerns about the economy, living standards and national trajectory. The upcoming Budget therefore comes at a moment of heightened public and political risk — delivering reassurance, credible improvement or at least a credible plan will be critical for the government.
Here are several case-studies and commentary highlights that help frame how the prevailing public mood in the UK — that the country is perceived as “heading in the wrong direction” — is influencing and being influenced by the upcoming Autumn 2025 Budget.
Case Studies
Case Study 1: Household behaviour & consumer sentiment
- A survey by KPMG of 3,000 UK consumers found that before the spring Budget, 58 % said Britain’s economy had worsened over the prior three months. (The Guardian)
- Notably: 43 % of respondents said they were reducing everyday spending, and 29 % were deferring major purchases. (The Guardian)
- This suggests that the sentiment of “wrong direction” isn’t just abstract — it’s translating into behaviour that may impact the economy (lower consumption) and thereby reinforce negative fiscal-feedback loops ahead of the Budget.
Case Study 2: Polling & political expectations
- According to a poll by Ipsos MORI, about 75 % of Britons expect the economy to worsen in the next 12 months — the worst reading since the series began in 1978. (Reuters)
- Meanwhile, other polling (from Kantar Public / Verian) shows 59 % of Britons say the UK is heading in the wrong direction (February 2023). (veriangroup.com)
- These results indicate the public not only feels the country is off-course, but also lacks faith that things will improve materially — a critical backdrop for a budget expected to offer hope, direction or relief.
Case Study 3: Fiscal policy trust & tax credibility
- A poll from Demos (reported by The Independent) found that only one in five voters approves of reported plans by Rachel Reeves (Chancellor-designate) to break the manifesto pledge of not raising income tax. (The Independent)
- Commentary explains: the public is willing to pay more tax only if it’s clearly linked to real improvement in services, living standards and if the government provides a credible vision of how it will be spent. (The Independent)
- This bears directly on the “wrong direction” sentiment: people don’t believe that promises will translate into outcomes, or that the current direction will reverse without clear change.
Commentary & Insights
- According to Bloomberg, the CEO of Marks & Spencer recently commented that “people are very worried about tax rises and they think things are heading in the wrong direction.” (Bloomberg)
- Commentary from polling firms:
“These numbers show the difficult political environment … With two in three Britons thinking things are heading in the wrong direction … the next occupant of Number 10 will need to hit the ground running to reassure the public.” — from Kantar commentary. (Ipsos)
- Regarding the Budget: the Demos / Independent piece emphasises that the government must provide vision and conviction, not just numbers. The public’s mood of pessimism calls for a strong narrative, not just technical fixes. (The Independent)
Implications for the Autumn 2025 Budget
- Messaging-first: The government must first address the narrative of “wrong direction” — i.e., demonstrate credible change, clarity of direction and that the Budget will alter the trajectory, not simply continue existing policy.
- Target relief or investment: Given consumer behaviour shows households cutting back, measures that signal relief (cost-of-living support, public services investment) may have outsized impact beyond their size, by restoring confidence.
- Transparency and tax credibility: Because trust is low on tax rises, any proposed increases must be justified clearly, linked to outcomes, and ideally targeted (rather than blunt) to avoid reinforcing the “we’re off-course” view.
- Risk of backlash: If the Budget is perceived as insufficient or as continuing status-quo trajectory, the large segment of the public holding a negative view may express that in political behaviour (voting, protest, reduced consumer spending).
Summary
In sum: The prevailing mood in Britain ahead of the Budget is one of pessimism and scepticism — a majority believe the UK is heading in the wrong direction, and many believe economic prospects are weak. The case-studies show this is affecting behaviour and expectation. For the government, the task is not just fiscal management but restoring confidence and altering the narrative of direction.