According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), total UK retail sales grew by 2.3% year-over-year in September, which is weaker than in August. (Investing.com)
Non-food sales — things like clothing, electronics, and home goods — are especially sluggish. (The Standard)
Overall, October was “subdued,” with BRC and KPMG data showing the slowest growth since May. (The Guardian)
Consumers Are Holding Back
Many shoppers are postponing discretionary purchases (i.e., non-essential items). (The Guardian)
This delay is partly because they’re waiting for Black Friday deals, but also because of uncertainty about what the upcoming budget will bring (i.e., possible tax increases, cost pressures). (The Guardian)
According to Barclays, “a third of consumers were holding off on major purchases until after the budget.” (The Star)
Consumer confidence is falling: Barclays measured declines across all their tracked confidence metrics. (The Guardian)
Budget Fears Are a Major Factor
The upcoming Autumn Budget (expected Nov 26) is a big source of anxiety for households. (Investing.com)
Rising inflation, higher energy bills, and the prospect of higher taxes are weighing on consumer minds. (Investing.com)
Retailers are also worried about their own costs: business rates (a kind of property tax for businesses) may increase, which affects their investment decisions. (The Standard)
The Aldi UK CEO, Giles Hurley, explicitly warned that the late-November budget timing could “deter customers” just when retailers need demand to be high. (Grocery Gazette)
Impact on Retailers’ Planning
Because of this uncertainty, retailers are hesitant about hiring and investing, especially going into the “golden quarter” (the end-of-year holiday season). (Investing.com)
Some retailers are pushing more promotions or preparing for tighter demand. (The Standard)
The BRC has also pointed out that some big “anchor” stores (major department stores) could face real risk if business rate reforms go poorly. (The Standard)
Warnings from Specific Retailers
Sainsbury’s (including Argos) says shoppers are delaying spending in the run-up to the budget. (The Guardian)
Aldi has warned that consumer confidence is being hit by uncertainty, and this could dampen Christmas-season spending. (The Guardian)
Frasers (fashion retailer) said that the budget was a “kick in the face” and that weak consumer confidence is hurting its profit outlook. (Reuters)
Potential Consequences
If consumers keep delaying purchases, especially big-ticket items, the end-of-year sales boom (Black Friday + Christmas) could be weaker than expected. (The Guardian)
Retailers may end up scaling back hiring or reducing investment in stores. (Investing.com)
Higher costs (from things like tax changes or business rates) could force retailers to raise prices or cut margins, making things tighter for both businesses and consumers. (The Standard)
Bottom Line
Consumer caution is rising: People are waiting to see what the budget will bring before spending more freely.
Retailers are bracing: With weaker sales and more uncertainty, they’re being more conservative with hiring and investment.
The budget matters a lot: Its outcome could strongly influence both consumer behavior and retail sector health going into the critical holiday season.
Good question. Here’s a detailed breakdown of case studies and comments from UK retailers, trade bodies, and analysts on how budget uncertainty is making consumers delay their retail purchases — plus the potential implications.
Case Studies & Comments
1. Sainsbury’s
What’s happening: Sainsbury’s (including Argos) has reported that shoppers are postponing discretionary spending because of financial uncertainty ahead of the UK budget. (The Guardian)
Commentary: Simon Roberts, CEO of Sainsbury’s, has warned the Chancellor (Rachel Reeves) against tax hikes on retailers and suppliers, saying this could stoke inflation and further damage consumer confidence. (The Guardian)
Response from Sainsbury’s: To stimulate demand, Sainsbury’s has brought forward Black Friday deals earlier than usual. (The Guardian)
Wider concern: Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), said that while retailers are relying on Black Friday to boost sales, looming budget decisions are “risking undermining fragile consumer confidence.” (The Guardian)
2. Frasers (Retail Group)
Situation: Frasers — a fashion and sportswear retailer — was very blunt. Its CFO, Chris Wootton, said the budget felt like a “kick in the face” for the business. (Reuters)
Why: They blamed the budget (and related policy measures) for weakening consumer confidence and hurting their profit outlook. (Reuters)
Financial impact: They expect at least £50 million in additional costs for the 2025/26 year due to budget-related measures. (Reuters)
Broader worry: Wootton mentioned that when consumer confidence is knocked, it’s hard to predict when it will recover — and that affects Frasers’ planning for hiring, inventory, and investment. (Reuters)
3. Halfords
Retailer type: Halfords sells bikes, car parts, and leisure equipment.
Comment: Its leadership has warned that “budget fears make the near-term outlook uncertain,” especially for big-ticket items. (The Times)
Behavioral effect: Because people are unsure what the government budget will do (taxes, household costs), some are delaying spending on more expensive things like bikes or car accessories. (The Times)
Company response: Halfords is trying to manage by cutting costs where it can and focusing on what they can control, given the volatility. (The Times)
4. British Retail Consortium (BRC) & KPMG
Data-driven case: In a joint report, BRC and KPMG found that retail spending slowed as the Budget approached, partially because households were facing higher bills and uncertainty. (BRC)
Specifics:
Non-food sales (clothing, electronics, etc.) grew very weakly — in some cases, almost flat. (The Guardian)
BRC’s Helen Dickinson said milder weather also played a part: shoppers delayed “refreshing their autumn and winter wardrobes.” (BRC)
On the business side, Dickinson pointed out that retailers are worried about business rates (a tax on commercial property). She urged the Chancellor to consider easing the burden, especially on big “anchor” stores, to reduce inflationary pressure. (BRC)
KPMG’s perspective: Linda Ellett, KPMG’s UK Head of Consumer, Retail & Leisure, noted that retailers are carefully planning their product ranges and promotions for the “golden quarter” (holiday season), but the uncertainty around the budget is making these plans harder. (BRC)
5. Consumer Behavior & Sentiment
Card spending drop: According to Barclays (cited in analysis by other analysts), consumer card spending fell by 0.8% year-over-year in October 2025, especially on non-essential items. (AInvest)
Falling confidence: Barclays also reported that all the consumer confidence metrics it tracks have declined, including confidence in household finances, job security, and willingness to spend. (The Guardian)
Locking in costs: Some consumers are adjusting their finances (saving more, spending less) because of concerns about upcoming tax increases or other budget-related costs. (The Guardian)
6. Risk of Business Strain
Retailer warnings to government: Dozens of major retailers (like Tesco, Boots, Next, M&S) signed a letter via the BRC warning the Chancellor that the budget changes could cost the sector up to £7 billion annually. (Financial Times)
Potential fallout: They said these extra costs could lead to “job losses, higher prices for customers … and store closures.” (Financial Times)
Insolvency pressure: Some analysts are warning that the combination of weak demand and rising costs could push more retail firms toward insolvency. (insights.administrationlist.co.uk)
Key Take-Aways (from These Case Studies)
Uncertainty is powerful — Just the fear of what the budget will bring is enough to make many consumers put off big purchases, especially non-essentials.
Retailers are under strain — Higher costs (from taxes, business rates, wages) + lower consumer confidence = tough planning and squeezed margins.
Calls for government action — Retailers and trade bodies like the BRC are urging the government to mitigate costs (for example, via business rate reform) to avoid hurting both businesses and consumers.
Black Friday is a double-edged sword — Retailers are hoping that early and aggressive Black Friday promotions will help, but they worry that budget timing (if tax decisions come right before) could undercut that boost.
