What the Data Shows — Weak Non-Food Sales
- Retail Sales Overview (October 2025)
- According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), total UK retail sales rose by 1.6% year-on-year in October. (brc.org.uk)
- This was the slowest growth since May, and below the 12-month average of ~2.1%. (Yahoo Finance)
- Non-Food Segment Performance
- Non-food sales increased by just 0.1% year-on-year in October. (brc.org.uk)
- For in-store non-food, the growth was also +0.1% YoY. (brc.org.uk)
- Online non-food sales were flat (0.0% YoY), showing almost no growth. (brc.org.uk)
- The online penetration rate for non-food items rose slightly to 37.9%, up from 37.8% a year before. (brc.org.uk)
- Consumer Behavior
- Many consumers delayed purchases of discretionary non-food goods — like toys, electronics, and clothing — deliberately waiting for Black Friday deals. (brc.org.uk)
- Some non-food categories fared relatively better: for example, furniture and homeware saw more shopping, as people prepared their homes for the festive season. (brc.org.uk)
- Consumer Confidence & Pre-Budget Risk
- The slowdown in non-food was also linked to uncertainty ahead of the UK Autumn Budget. (Yahoo Finance)
- Retailers are particularly reliant on a strong Black Friday to make up for this weak pre-deal demand. (Retail Gazette)
- Retail Strategy & Expectations
- According to KPMG’s Linda Ellett, many home-related categories benefited earlier (furniture, etc.), but other parts — especially electronics and “big-ticket” non-food — were being postponed. (brc.org.uk)
- There is an expectation that Black Friday and Christmas will be vital for retailers to recover from the subdued October. (brc.org.uk)
Key Commentary & Insights
- Helen Dickinson (BRC CEO):
October was a “subdued month … with the weakest growth since May. Many delayed spending, waiting for Black Friday deals … before buying toys, electronics and clothing.” (brc.org.uk)
- She also warned that Budget-related uncertainty could further undermine consumer confidence — especially if there are unfavorable tax or business rates decisions. (brc.org.uk)
- KPMG (Linda Ellett):
- Ellett pointed out that online non-food growth dried up, indicating that even digital discretionary spending is weakening. (brc.org.uk)
- She also noted that some of the “lag benefit” from house-buying (preparing homes) may be fading, which could hurt future homeware sales. (brc.org.uk)
- According to her, many shoppers are now using AI / tech more to find the best Black Friday deals — meaning retailers need to lean into digital offers and personalized promo tactics. (brc.org.uk)
- Broader View (Proactive / Retail Gazette):
- The subdued non-food performance is widely seen as a “wait-and-see” effect: consumers are deferring discretionary purchases until deeper Black Friday discounts appear. (Retail Gazette)
- Some retailers are vulnerable: categories like fashion, electronics, and toys are more exposed to delayed spending, while more “prepared-for-Christmas” categories (furniture, homeware) are doing a bit better. (Retail Gazette)
Implications & Risks for Retailers
- Retailers relying on Black Friday may face a lot of pressure — if consumers don’t spend as much as hoped during that period, the weak October could significantly hurt Q4 performance.
- The flat online non-food growth is concerning, as many retailers count on e-commerce for non-discretionary resilience.
- Consumer confidence remains fragile: if the Autumn Budget deals a negative surprise (e.g., tax rises, business cost increases), it could dampen the expected Black Friday “pop.”
- Retailers may need to lean more on promotions, targeted deals, and tech (AI, data-driven marketing) to persuade consumers to buy sooner rather than wait.
- Good question. Here are case-study style examples and key comments / analysis around the weak non-food sales in the UK — especially as consumers held off spending before Black Friday. These are built from data and commentary largely from the BRC (British Retail Consortium), KPMG, and other sources.
Case Studies & Illustrative Scenarios
Case Study 1: A Big-Box Electronics & Toy Retailer
Situation:
- A retailer that sells electronics, toys, and gaming gear is seeing much weaker demand in October. BRC data shows that consumers delayed purchases of toys and electronics, holding out for Black Friday deal events. (brc.org.uk)
- Both in-store non-food sales rose just 0.1% YoY, while online non-food sales were flat (0.0%) in October. (brc.org.uk)
Challenges:
- Large discretionary items (electronics / toys) are expensive, so consumers are more likely to postpone and wait for deals.
- Sensitive to pricing — any delay or uncertainty (e.g. around Black Friday) hits sales hard.
- Online is not compensating enough for in-store weakness (flat growth online).
Retailer Response:
- Planning for an aggressive Black Friday campaign to convert the “waiting” customers.
- Possibly increasing inventory of entry-level / lower-price SKUs to cater to budget-conscious buyers.
- Using data / AI to target price-sensitive shoppers (as KPMG notes “AI will play a growing role in how consumers search for … promotional offers”). (brc.org.uk)
Implications if Plans Don’t Work:
- If Black Friday doesn’t deliver the expected bump, the retailer may face excess inventory.
- Margins could be pressured if they cut prices heavily to win back demand.
- Could lead to cash-flow stress, especially for big-ticket inventory.
Case Study 2: A Fashion / Clothing Retailer (High Street & Online)
Situation:
- Shoppers are delaying clothing purchases, waiting for discounts rather than buying now. Helen Dickinson (BRC) specifically mentioned that people are holding off on “clothing … waiting for Black Friday deals.” (brc.org.uk)
- The growth for non-food is nearly flat, reflecting weak demand for fashion / apparel. (Yahoo Finance)
Challenges:
- Mild weather may also be delaying purchases of winter clothes, as consumers don’t feel urgent pressure to stock up. (The Guardian)
- Risk of excess inventory if goods don’t shift pre-Black Friday.
- Pressure on both physical stores and online channels, since neither is seeing strong non-food spending.
Retailer Response:
- Launch early promotional activity (pre-Black Friday) to pull forward demand.
- Use online tools / personalization to highlight deals and encourage purchase now rather than wait.
- Adjust buying plans: order fewer full-price items, more discounted lines, or more “entry” SKUs that are more likely to sell.
Implications:
- If they get it right, early promos could convert hesitant spenders and reduce reliance on just Black Friday.
- But margin risk is real, particularly if consumers push for deep discounts.
- Could reshape inventory planning for Q4 and influence how the retailer targets Black Friday customers in future.
Case Study 3: Homeware & Furniture Retailer
Situation:
- Unlike electronics or toys, furniture and homeware performed relatively better: BRC noted that home-related categories “fared better … as people began preparing their homes ahead of family festive gatherings.” (brc.org.uk)
- These purchases are more “prepared for the season” — people are thinking about home gatherings, not necessarily waiting only for super-deep discounts.
Challenges:
- While better than other non-food, demand may still be fragile: KPMG’s Linda Ellett warned that the recent strength in household goods “cooled” in October. (brc.org.uk)
- The potential flattening of housing market could hurt demand for big-ticket homeware going forward. (Retail Gazette)
Retailer Response:
- Emphasize “early Christmas” homeware lines (decor, tableware) to capture people prepping for festive events.
- Use data to promote budget-friendly yet stylish items — appealing to consumers who want to deck out their home but are cost-conscious.
- Consider flexible delivery or payments (e.g., part-payment, installments) to make larger purchases more accessible.
Implications:
- If this strategy works, homeware retailers could make up for softness in other non-food categories.
- Might shift more inventory toward Christmas-oriented, functional-decor items rather than high-end luxury pieces.
- Could increase their reliance on “pre-season” sales rather than heavy Black Friday-only sales.
Key Commentary & Analysis
- Helen Dickinson (BRC CEO)
- She described October as a “subdued month, with the weakest growth since May.” (brc.org.uk)
- She observed that many consumers are holding off on discretionary non-food items — especially toys, electronics, and clothing — because they’re waiting for Black Friday deals. (Yahoo Finance)
- She also warned that “looming Budget decisions” could hit consumer confidence just as retailers are banking on Black Friday to boost sales. (brc.org.uk)
- Linda Ellett (KPMG, UK Head of Consumer, Retail & Leisure)
- Ellett noted that recent strength in household goods (furniture / homeware) may be cooling — which could reflect a softening housing market or more cautious consumer sentiment. (brc.org.uk)
- She also pointed out that online growth dried up, meaning even digital discretionary spending isn’t picking up in October. (Retail Gazette)
- Importantly: her KPMG research suggests many shoppers are already planning for Black Friday, and AI / technology will shape how they find deals:
“AI will play a growing role in how consumers search for … promotional offers or gifts.” (brc.org.uk)
- Broader Retail Industry View (Retail Gazette)
- The Retail Gazette highlighted that the data supports a “wait-and-see” consumer mindset heading into Black Friday. (Retail Gazette)
- They argue that retailers are under pressure: they need Black Friday to reverse the slowdown, but they also risk discount fatigue or margin erosion if they offer too deep or too early deals. (Retail Gazette)
- Bloomberg Analysis
- Bloomberg notes that the weak non-food spending is “essentially no growth” in categories like toys, electronics, and clothing. (Bloomberg)
- It also links this to broader political / economic risk: with a government budget announcement coming, the uncertainty is compounding the consumer delay. (Bloomberg)
Strategic Implications & Risk Factors for Retailers
- High Dependency on Black Friday: Retailers are counting on Black Friday more than usual to revive demand for non-food items. If that fails, Q4 could be very weak for discretionary categories.
- Margin Risk: To convert hesitant spenders, some retailers may deepen discounts or margin-dilutive strategies, which could hurt profitability.
- Inventory Risk: Misjudging demand could lead to either excess stock (if sales don’t pick up) or stockouts (if too many consumers convert at once).
- Tech / Data Advantage: Retailers who leverage AI and data to target deal-hunting shoppers may gain a competitive edge.
- Consumer Confidence Is Fragile: Budget uncertainty is a real risk. If the government’s Autumn Budget disappoints or raises costs (e.g., business rates), it could further suppress consumer spending.
- Category Mix Matters: Retailers in “home-related” non-food categories (furniture, decor) are in a slightly better position — but they still face demand risk if housing-market dynamics deteriorate.